Virginia Democrats bet anti-Trump anger will eclipse text scandal
Virginia Democrats are banking on anger toward President Trump pushing them over the finish line in next month’s off-year elections following a last-minute texting scandal that has threatened to roil the race.
On Monday, Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones rolled out an ad tying incumbent state Attorney General Jason Miyares to Trump, reflecting what has become his campaign’s go-to strategy for attacking the Republican. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, who is running against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), has also invoked the impact of Trump’s second administration on Virginians. Both candidates repeatedly hammered their opponents over the president during their respective debates.
The strategy reflects the president’s high unpopularity in the commonwealth, and his history of dragging Virginia Republicans down when he is in office. But Democrats argue the attacks also tie into the anxiety over the administration’s policies in Virginia, especially when it comes to federal job cuts.
“The Trump piece is a through line there, but it’s not the whole story,” said one Democratic operative.
Spanberger’s campaign unveiled an ad on Tuesday that said, “Virginia is hurting because of Trump policies that Sears backs.” In the spot, the campaign cites Trump’s policies contributing to the rise of the cost of homebuying, renting and unemployment.
The ad wraps with audio of Earle-Sears saying, “I’m supporting what the president is doing.”
The effort to tie Republicans to Trump is also being seen in races for the House of Delegates. Elizabeth Guzmán, the Democratic candidate for the 22nd District, tied her opponent Ian Lovejoy to federal layoffs and Medicaid cuts in the president’s reconciliation package.
“I think the strategy is more distinct and nuanced than just saying Donald Trump is bad,” said one national Democratic operative. “The thing that is unique about Virginia this year is that what President Trump is doing is not some faraway national political issue. It is policies that are directly hurting people in Virginia in their own backyards.”
“It’s given Virginia Democrats an opportunity to not only tie the Republicans to Trump because they’ve refused to stand up to him but to go on offense on the economy where the lane is wide open,” the national operative added.
Jones’s effort to link Miyares to Trump has been the most visible in recent weeks.
The attorney general candidate doggedly invoked Trump at his only debate last week. It was a high-stakes event for Jones in particular, given that it was his first time on stage with Miyares and that it came soon after news he had sent texts to a colleague in 2022 in which he suggested shooting a former Republican state House Speaker. Miyares, in turn, repeatedly hammered Jones over the scandal.
Trump endorsed Miyares in a Truth Social post earlier this month, in which he also called on Jones to drop out of the race.
Jones’s campaign highlighted the endorsement in an ad first released to The Hill earlier this week, saying “no one has done more for Trump in Virginia than Jason Miyares.”
Republicans are publicly dismissing the tactic as a distraction.
“The Democrat coalition unites around one thing: hatred. From Jay Jones’s fantasies about murder to Abigail Spanberger supporters yelling racist attacks, Virginia Democrats are clearly motivated by violence,” said Delanie Bomar, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, apparently referring to a protester at an event in August who held up a sign directed at Earle-Sears that said, “Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then blacks can’t share my water fountain.”
In their own statement, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) called the Trump administration’s federal layoffs “a direct assault on the commonwealth of Virginia.”
“And Winsome Earle-Sears’s refusal to hold him accountable is disqualifying,” said DNC deputy communications director Abhi Rahman.
Democrats argue the strategy makes sense in the race for the state’s top law enforcement spot, particularly given how Jones is now seen as more vulnerable.
“Particularly for the role of attorney general, this is a role that in this moment, all across the country, attorneys general are holding the Trump administration to account to protect their constituents,” the Democratic operative noted.
Trump has not offered as formal of an endorsement to Earle-Sears, but he voiced his support for her with reporters on Air Force One on Sunday.
“I think the Republican candidate is very good, and I think she should win because the Democrat candidate is a disaster,” Trump said. “I haven’t been too much involved in Virginia. I love the state. I did very well in the state.”
Earle-Sears thanked the president for his support in a post on the social platform X.
Trump’s involvement in this year’s governor’s race could not be more different from 2021, when the president was eager to campaign for then-Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin did not appear with Trump on the campaign trail while his opponent, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), unsuccessfully worked to tie Youngkin to Trump. Youngkin fully embraced Trump after he was elected.
The president has a more complicated history with Earle-Sears. The lieutenant governor criticized Trump following Republicans’ underwhelming 2022 midterm performance, saying in an interview that a true leader understands when they have become a liability. Trump swiftly hit back at Earle-Sears, calling her “a phony” and saying he never felt good about her.
Trump’s lukewarm support for her could end up being a blessing in disguise given his deep unpopularity in the state. An Emerson College/The Hill poll released earlier this month showed Trump with a 42 percent approval rating and a 54 percent disapproval rating. Trump has never won the state in a presidential election but improved his margins in 2024.
Moreover, whenever Trump has been in office and there has been an off-year election, Democrats have performed well. During his first administration in 2017, Democrats won the gubernatorial, lieutenant gubernatorial and state attorney general races. Democrats did not win a majority in the House of Delegates that year, but they narrowed the GOP majority to one seat.
Then in 2019, Democrats won control of the House of Delegates and the state Senate, giving the party control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1994.
Nationally, there have been warnings to Democratic candidates to give voters an agenda or idea to vote for as opposed to just telling voters to oppose a candidate.
“People tried to run on this during the Biden administration and did not have as much success invoking Trump,” said Ben Tribbett, a veteran Virginia Democratic strategist. “Some of the anti-Trump stuff over the years has been so national that people didn’t feel that it was touching their lives.”
“With the government shutdown in Northern Virginia and in Hampton Roads, both of which are such federally centric areas, that touches everyone. You don’t have to be a government employee for that to touch you,” he added.
Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area are two of the larger population centers in the state, making voter turnout essential in any statewide Virginia election.
“This is going to be something that really affects the election here much more so than it would any other state in the country,” Tribbett said.