Worries grow about Black, Hispanic voter turnout for Sherrill in New Jersey governor’s race
TRENTON — New Jersey Democrats and prominent state leaders have expressed concern that Black and Hispanic voters — historically forming the backbone of the party — may not turn out for Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in her quest to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
Some have chalked up the apathy as lingering from last year’s election between former Vice President Harris and President Trump, as well as years of failed outreach between the two parties. Others say Sherrill simply isn’t doing enough to court their votes.
“I believe that although our next governor has to represent the entire state — and we’re okay with that — but where [do] Black people land in the conversation? We should be at the top of the food chain, particularly from the Democratic Party side,” Dr. John Harmon, the founder, CEO and president of the African American Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey, said last week.
Some of the same concerns around anemic turnout, coupled with Republicans’ recent gains within the voting blocs, are resurfacing ahead of the gubernatorial election next month.
While New Jersey has typically been thought of as a reliably blue, the Democratic Party can’t take the Garden State for granted in November.
Murphy fended off a challenge from Jack Ciattarelli, the GOP’s 2025 gubernatorial candidate, in 2021 by 3 percentage points. Harris, meanwhile, won the state by roughly 6 points — a far cry from the roughly 16 points former President Biden won the state by in 2020 or the 14 points Democrat Hillary Clinton won it by as the 2016 presidential candidate.
A Decision Desk HQ polling average of surveys on the race shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 5 points — 49 percent to 44 percent.
“The same apathy or the same turnout concern that we saw what happened in November — I think it’s a real concern, especially with Black and brown voters for this cycle,” one New Jersey Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told The Hill.
“Mikie and her team have done a really good job of trying to go into the communities,” the strategist said, adding, “I don’t know that we’re going to know how well it’s actually resonating until people vote.”
Asked by The Hill earlier this month about what she would say to Black and Hispanic voters who are uninterested in the upcoming election, Sherrill said the top issue she hears among those communities, like other voting blocs, is about affordability.
“We know that about 70 percent of white families and only about 30 percent of Black families in the state own their homes, and so that first-time homebuyer [program] can help people get into that first home and actually create generational wealth,” Sherrill said in New Brunswick last week after a gubernatorial debate.
Sherrill’s campaign spokesman Sean Higgins noted in a statement to The Hill that “Mikie recognizes that economic empowerment strengthens communities of color” and pointed to some of her plans aimed at addressing business growth in the state and energy costs, such as her Save Your Time and Money Agenda and state of emergency on utility costs.
But some Black voters like Harmon want Sherrill to be more specific about her agenda.
“I don’t want to bring President Trump into this conversation, but I will say whether you love him or hate him, he’s doing what he says he’s going to do,” Harmon said, adding that’s what New Jerseyans expect out of their next governor.
He suggested Sherrill outline how she plans to support minority- and women-owned businesses with public contracts and tackle project labor agreements. A New Jersey Disparity Study released last year, for example, detailed how minority-owned businesses were awarded substantially fewer public contracts compared to white-male-owned businesses.
“We’re expecting the candidates to make a declaration on how they’re going to advance this state for all people, but particularly for those groups that are underperforming, that have been marginalized,” he continued.
Sherrill and other Democrats, meanwhile, have suggested Ciattarelli doesn’t care about Black and Hispanic communities. They repeatedly point to a moment on the campaign trail when he replied “next question” to an inquiry about how important these voters would be to his campaign.
Democrats have also slammed the New Jersey Republican over remarks during the first debate in which he acknowledged that New Jersey’s schools were among the most segregated in the country, while asking “I wonder if we would be having this discussion if the performance of schools with predominantly Black student populations were outperforming schools with predominantly white populations?”
“It’s totally absurd,” Ciattarelli campaign strategist Chris Russell told The Hill about the attacks. “And I think the fact that we’re even having this conversation proves that they’re grasping.”
Ciattarelli previously chalked up is 2021 gubernatorial loss to his “too white” campaign team. This time around, Russel said they have “the resources to kind of build out a bigger, more diverse, more robust team”
“The campaign has made a very concerted effort to be present in [Black and Hispanic] communities and aggressively fight for votes that maybe in the past, have been traditionally not Republican but are finding a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of openness to hearing Jack’s message and to engaging with the campaign,” Russell said.
Still, Sherrill has secured the endorsements of local and national leaders, including primary challenger and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D) as well as Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and former President Obama. But Ciattarelli has also seen some high profile local endorsements, including John Wayman Henry III, a former chair of the economic development commission in West Orange who backed Baraka in the Democratic primary.
“He has offered specific solutions to improving healthcare, education and opportunity for Black-owned businesses,” Henry wrote in a release announcing his support of Ciattarelli. “Whether or not he is your candidate, the larger point remains we cannot keep showing up to dances where we’re never allowed to lead.”
Michael Bland, the executive director of Black Men Vote and a Sherrill supporter, said there’s a “misnomer” that Black men don’t vote or care about politics, noting the larger issue is that campaigns often don’t message to, complete outreach or poll the demographic.
He said he reached out to both candidates to offer advice on courting Black voters. Speaking to Sherrill, Bland advised her against making promises and instead suggested she make commitments and be authentic.
“I think she had to learn for the first time, ‘How do I court Black and Latino voters … from Elizabeth from Monmouth County from Mercer County?’,” Bland said of the North Jersey Democrat, who represents a predominantly white congressional district.
“Do I think that she could have done more in the beginning? Absolutely,” he said. ” Do I think she’s adjusted and pivoted? Yeah.”
Regardless, other stakeholders believe any possible indifference or lack of engagement around the gubernatorial election has quickly dissipated amid Trump’s second term in office.
“The apathy might have existed last year, but I think there is too much fear now on the line for people to be quiet,” said Ana Maria Hill, New Jersey state director and vice president of 32BJ SEIU, another Sherrill endorser.