Inflation data used to set 2026 Social Security COLA coming Oct. 24
(NewsNation) — The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a key inflation report later this month despite an ongoing government shutdown that has left economists flying blind at a crucial moment for the economy.
September’s Consumer Price Index data will now be published on Oct. 24, nine days after its original planned release date, according to the BLS.
The inflation report is vital for policymakers trying to chart the best path forward for interest rates, and it’s especially important this month because the data will determine the Social Security cost-of-living-adjustment, or COLA, for 2026.
That’s because the annual Social Security benefit bump is tied to the average inflation data for July, August and September.
A recent estimate from the Senior Citizens League put the COLA at 2.7% for 2026, slightly above this year’s 2.5% increase. But a surprise in September’s data could shift that number up or down.
Under normal circumstances, the COLA would have been announced this week, but it’s been delayed since the shutdown closed the BLS.
The agency is now bringing back workers to compile the September report, NewsNation’s partner The Hill reported.
The BLS said the CPI release later this month will allow the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines to “ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.” However, other reports will remain on hold.
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” the agency said Friday.
The government’s September jobs report, for example, still hasn’t seen the light of day, forcing economists to rely on private data to gauge the economy’s health.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted Monday that the shutdown could become the longest in history and said he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats until they hit pause on their health care demands and reopen.
If the shutdown drags on and official economic data remains scarce, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Officials cut rates for the first time this year in September amid rising labor market risks, but it’s difficult to assess how those risks have evolved without new data. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and the full impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs is still unclear.
Even so, markets widely expect another rate cut this month, with traders pricing in a 99% chance of a quarter-point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool.