7 reasons the 2026 midterms will be the most dramatic ever
Fourteen months away from Nov. 3, 2026, I feel confident making one prediction: Next year’s midterm election will be the most dramatic in American political history.
That prediction is based on the “D” in Donald Trump standing for “drama.” Meanwhile, a recent poll found 52 percent of Americans believe he is a “dangerous dictator” — a timely topic this week.
In 2023, Trump famously vowed not to be a dictator “except for day one.” Fast forward to Monday, when Trump said, “I am not a dictator,” responding to criticism about deploying militarized National Guard troops for “emergency” crime control in Washington D.C. The president also threatened to send more troops to cities in blue states, despite gubernatorial opposition.
During Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, Trump continued his dictator talk with denials and justifications. Doubling down, he ordered Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to prepare National Guard units for rapid nationwide deployment.
Although Trump’s name won’t appear on the midterm ballot, his authoritarian tendencies will remain a significant issue. The president’s aggressive leadership style — characterized by fear, intimidation and intrusive actions expanding executive power — was detailed in Project 2025, Trump’s second-term manifesto, now almost half implemented.
Project 2025 is based in large part on the controversial “unitary executive theory,” justifying how the president can govern as if “I am the law.” Daily headlines demonstrate how Trump has embraced this theory with little pushback from Republicans in Congress.
All the above set the stage for the midterm and seven specific factors likely to make the 2026 elections the most contentious ever.
First, Trump fears that Republicans will lose control of Congress. Thus, he will do anything to defy political history — the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms and sometimes loses control of one or both houses of Congress. Trump’s trepidations are justified after a brutal 2018 defeat in his first midterm election when Democrats regained control of the House, winning the most seats since the 1974 post-Watergate midterm. Even so, Republicans retained Senate control and gained two seats.
Trump is determined to prevent a repeat of the 2018 House meltdown. However, if Democrats triumph — they only need to flip three net seats to win back the House — expect a familiar Trump tirade about a rigged and stolen election, possibly followed by mayhem if Trump rallies his MAGA masses.
Second, Republicans in Congress will leverage the threat of a third Trump impeachment to keep control by motivating their pro-Trump base to turn out. Meanwhile, Democrats may downplay another impeachment because the Senate failed to convict him in both the 2019 and 2021 impeachments.
Undoubtedly, if Democrats take the House, count on numerous investigations into the president’s potentially unconstitutional actions, including conflicts of interest and family enrichment. Worthy of scrutiny is a report estimating that the Trump family has amassed a $3.4 billion fortune since the president took office in 2017.
Third, Trump has sparked a congressional gerrymandering war by declaring that his party is “entitled to five more seats” in Texas. After much angst, Texas bowed to Trump. California is countering, trying to gerrymander five new Democratic seats of its own, although that will require a ballot referendum. Trump, meanwhile, is trying to browbeat other Republican states, like Indiana, into redistricting.
The momentum for state legislatures to choose voters by carving congressional districts to favor a red or blue outcome is reaching critical mass, while undermining democracy and angering constituents. A recent YouGov survey found that 76 percent of voters believe gerrymandering is unfair and a significant problem, while 69 percent think it should be illegal.
If, by November 2026, Trump’s job approval rating still ranges from this week’s 45 percent (among adults) to 37 percent (among registered voters), but Republicans maintain House control because of Trump-instigated redistricting, how will disenfranchised voters respond? Could there be a revolt?
Fourth, there will be an unprecedented amount of weaponization of “deep fakes” and artificial intelligence. How will voters differentiate real from fake ads and information? Both domestic and foreign players will attempt to sway the election to serve their interests. Russia is particularly engaged, and malicious “deep fake” technology advances every day.
Fifth, 2026 could see the highest voter turnout in midterm history. Trump, indirectly on the ballot, incentivizes both liberal and conservative voters. Note that the 2018 midterm had a record-breaking 49 percent voter turnout, the highest participation since 1914. President Biden’s 2022 midterm turnout was only 46 percent, still the highest since 1970.
Will Trump diminish Republican turnout by insisting on in-person voting? In 2024, 30 percent of voters used mail-in ballots. Bizarrely, Trump told Sean Hannity after his Alaska summit with Russia’s leader that “Vladimir Putin said something — one of the most interesting things. He said, ‘Your election was rigged because you have mail-in voting.’”
Sixth, Trump turns 80 in June 2026. His noticeable health issues and cognitive decline could become a campaign issue. Is there a cover-up? Biden’s fragility has created a heightened awareness of age among voters.
Seventh, there is no escape from Trump himself. He demands our attention, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This chaotic new normal will play on the midterm stage. Nonetheless, as always, how voters personally feel about the economy remains the top issue. On Tuesday, a Gallup poll found that only 38 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, an ominous sign.
The 2026 midterms are centuries away in political time, so unexpected events could upend everything. Examples include a change in presidential leadership, an economic calamity, a major terrorist attack, a severe natural disaster or a foreign war with domestic consequences. Some people on the left even suggest that Trump might declare a national emergency and try to cancel the midterms.
America’s enemies know that the U.S. is a political matchbox sitting on a leaky gas tank of vulnerability. Some voters recognize that Trump will exploit any crisis (real or imagined) for his own political advantage — and about 40 percent will applaud.
Myra Adams is a political and religious opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.