Trump’s labor statistics shakeup sparks anxiety over future economic data
President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner is raising concerns about whether her replacement could manipulate job numbers to work in his favor.
The traditionally nonpartisan commissioner role, usually held by career professionals who span multiple administrations, has given all presidents bad news in recent years. But Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, has given data experts new worry that their traditionally independent work could now be politicized.
While experts acknowledge that manipulating economic numbers is difficult and highly risky, they have said Trump’s actions threaten to undermine confidence in data on which businesses, consumers and lawmakers rely.
William Beach, who was nominated by Trump in 2017 to serve a four-year term, was among the experts who sounded alarm bells about the decision to fire McEntarfer.
In a joint statement with other economic experts and former government officials, Beach warned that Trump’s actions undermined the integrity of the jobs report and was essentially making McEntarfer a scapegoat for a process that involves dozens of workers.
“This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers,” The Friends of Bureau Labor Statistics said in a statement. “U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science.”
A former Biden Treasury official agreed, telling The Hill on condition of anonymity: “Just the act of firing the BLS commission irrevocably shades how people will read future economic data, which by itself is a huge problem.”
Trump has sown doubt about the accuracy and validity of government jobs data dating back to the 2024 campaign.
Trump claimed that downward revisions of jobs numbers during the Biden administration showed the government had put out “fake” data that was “fraudulently manipulated.” Economists across the political spectrum pushed back, noting it was part of a regular process to account for inaccuracies in the data when it was first reported and provide a more accurate picture of the economy.
The president in recent days has used similar rhetoric to try to undermine jobs data during his own administration that has shown the economy may not be as strong as initial reports suggested.
“Last weeks Job’s Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged. That’s why, in both cases, there was massive, record setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats,” Trump said on Truth Social on Monday. “Those big adjustments were made to cover up, and level out, the FAKE political numbers that were CONCOCTED in order to make a great Republican Success look less stellar!!! I will pick an exceptional replacement.”
Trump said he intends to name a replacement for McEntarfer sometime this week. White House aides have argued the president is entitled to pick someone aligned with his own interests, though the position requires Senate confirmation.
“The president wants his own people there so that when we see the numbers, they’re more transparent and more reliable,” chief White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
“And if there are big changes and big revisions – we expect more big revisions for the jobs data in September, for example – then we want to know why,” Hassett added.
But, experts have suggested that even with an ally in the role, it’s very tricky to change the data that is ultimately released.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stressed how difficult it would be to manipulate the number as part of his outrage over Trump firing McEntarfer.
“These numbers are put together by teams of literally hundreds of people, following detailed procedures that are in manuals. There’s no conceivable way that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number,” Summers said on ABC’s “This Week.” “The numbers are in line with what we’re seeing from all kinds of private sector sources. This is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism.”
It would be tough to change the jobs data, but replacing the commissioner in charge of collecting it could still have negative consequences on the economy, argued Bruce Mehlman, who served as assistant secretary of Commerce for technology policy under former President George W. Bush.
“It will be hard for any head of BLS to manipulate the data, and frankly impossible for manipulated data to survive long-term scrutiny, but there’s real risk these actions could undermine investors’ and business confidence and thereby slow down the very economy they’re measuring,” Mehlman said.
The economy added 73,000 jobs in July, well below economists’ expectations of around 100,000.
More significant were the massive downward revisions over the past two months. The economy added just 14,000 jobs in June, after the number was initially reported as 147,000, and only 19,000 jobs were added in May after initially being reported as 144,000.
A White House official said the significant revision, which they say was the largest downturn revision outside of a recession since the 1960s, underscores that a change is long overdue and said the president is looking for a new commissioner who will “provide accurate and reliable data, not positive but fake data.”
“BLS data has been historically inaccurate and led by a totally incompetent individual. President Trump believes businesses, households, and policymakers deserve accurate data when making major policy decisions and he will restore America’s trust in this key data,” said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers.
But, the Trump team has also publicly touted one specific part of the July jobs report — growth for American-born workers— as a sign of success for the administration, while also claiming the top line numbers were rigged and defending Trump’s decision to fire McEntarfer.
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer pointed to the data that showed “native-born workers account for all of the job growth” in an interview with “Varney & Co” host Stuart Varney. The report found that job growth among American-born individuals was 133,035,000, an increase from 131,037,000 for the same month in 2024.
The Biden Treasury official blamed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for not convincing Trump to keep the BLS commissioner as a way to avoid a cloud of scrutiny over future jobs reports.
“In a normal circumstance, a Treasury Secretary would throw himself in front of the tracks to stop something like this, and failing that would resign in protest. But it’s pretty obvious by now that Scott Bessent has zero backbone. Reliable and apolitical economic statistics are a fundamental bedrock for investment and hiring decisions,” the former official said.