Trump’s numbers are down, but Republicans are far from out
As President Trump expands the trade war with new tariffs against more than 60 countries, it would behoove his administration to pay attention to what polls and public sentiment are saying.
Indeed, with Republicans holding an extremely narrow lead in the House of Representatives, how Americans feel about the administration figures to play a critical role, as midterms tend to be referenda on the party in charge.
To that end, polls continue to reflect Trump’s divisiveness and the polarization evident in American politics today, as well as widespread discontent over tariffs.
Indeed, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator shows Trump’s average approval rating 5 points underwater — with 46 percent approval versus 51 percent disapproval.
Trump’s approval rating represents an almost 4-point drop from the roughly 50 percent of the popular vote that he won in the 2024 election.
That said, the administration should be concerned about sentiment among independents. Just 3 in 10 (29 percent) of this critical voting bloc give Trump a positive approval rating, whereas a strong majority (62 percent) disapprove of the president thus far.
Trump’s second term polling has been surprisingly stable compared to his first. Trump’s ratings, per RealClearPolitics, have never surpassed the plus-6 points he entered office with, nor have they exceeded minus-7. The relative range-bound numbers underscore that Trump has both a firm floor on his numbers and a hard ceiling.
With that in mind, the data on how Americans feel about Trump’s handling of specific issues have been much more volatile, suggesting underlying pessimism about the president and his policies.
On the economy, a cornerstone of Trump’s campaign, multiple polls show that voters decisively disapprove of Trump’s approach, especially when it comes to trade policy.
Recent polling from Fox News reveals that a majority (55 percent) of registered voters disapprove of his economic approach, whereas 44 percent approve.
Emerson University polling confirms Fox’s findings, showing a 10-point net disapproval (51 percent to 41 percent).
Recent Morning Consult polling shows that 6 in 10 (61 percent) Americans blame Trump personally for driving up the cost of living due to tariffs. A similar share (63 percent) also believe tariffs have had a negative impact on grocery prices.
Those polls come on the heels of the passage of the “Big, Beautiful bill,” which, as we’ve previously noted in these pages, was viewed quite negatively, and just before an expanded tariff policy.
Immediately prior to Trump’s tax and spending bill, a Fox News poll found that a strong majority (59 percent) of voters opposed the bill, versus just 38 percent who supported it.
Negative sentiment towards Trump’s handling of the economy had begun to improve from April’s tariff-induced chaos, particularly as trade deals were signed and it appeared more were on the way.
However, Trump had backtracked, with a series of on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs before ultimately implementing broad tariffs covering more than 60 countries on Thursday.
It is likely that Trump expanded the trade war at exactly the wrong time.
Inflation has also begun creeping back up, with the personal consumption expenditures index rising for the second straight month to the highest level since February, just as hiring is slowing markedly, according to Friday’s jobs report.
That is bad news for a president who, in addition to the aforementioned Morning Consult data, has a net negative 22-point rating on handling inflation (37 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove) according to Economist/YouGov polling.
Even on immigration, which had been a strength for the president, Trump’s heavy-handed approach has rankled voters.
A Quinnipiac poll from mid-July shows that 55 percent of Americans disapprove of how the White House is handling immigration, while 40 percent approve.
And while Quinnipiac’s numbers are more negative than other polls, RealClearPolitics’ tracker still shows Trump with a net negative 7-point rating on immigration.
The administration’s handling of the Jeffery Epstein issue also appears to be weighing on Trump’s numbers, even among his base.
Slightly more than one-fifth (22 percent) of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the Epstein issue, a number that would look considerably worse if not for Trump’s own base. However, even among Trump voters, less than a majority (45 percent) give the president a passing grade on Epstein, per Economist/YouGov polling.
With help from Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), who sent the House home for recess earlier than anticipated, Trump was able to avoid congressional pressure on Epstein. But that reprieve will end in a few weeks, and the issue will likely be brought back into the spotlight.
To be sure, polling does also reveal a handful of bright spots for the administration.
The share of Americans believing the country is on the “wrong track” (54 percent) remains far below the 75 percent peak that occurred during former President Biden’s term.
Yet so far, Democrats have been unable to capitalize on Trump’s negative approval ratings.
Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot (3 points) is solidly within the margin of error, while some individual polls such as one from Cygnal show just a 1-point lead, a virtual tie.
In that same vein, whereas Wall Street Journal polling shows that a slight majority (52 percent) of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, that is still far below the nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of voters who view the Democratic Party unfavorably.
Moreover, while Americans give Trump negative marks on the economy, inflation, tariffs and foreign policy, they still trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle each issue, according to the Wall Street Journal’s analysis.
As they note, “disapproval of Trump’s handling of inflation outweighs approval by 11 points, and yet the GOP is trusted more than Democrats to handle inflation by 10 points.”
That is a remarkable contrast, and underscores that, despite elevated levels of disapproval toward Trump, Democrats remain unable to provide a viable alternative.
The ultimate impact of public opinion towards Trump on the midterms remains to be seen, but thus far, the data indicates that while Trump’s grip on his base remains intact, he is losing support among swing voters and even some non-MAGA Republicans.
Whether or not he can reverse this trend ahead of midterms will be critical, but only if Democrats find a way to capitalize on growing disillusionment toward Trump and the Republicans.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”