Morning Report — Will Biden’s new border restrictions sway voters?

In a turnabout that underscores how dramatically the politics of immigration have changed, President Biden is expected today to use an executive order to restrict and in some cases halt migration at the U.S. southern border.

Drafts have been circulating for months in the West Wing political shop. Now the president is five months from Election Day, hoping to get credit from detractors for tough action but without alienating pro migrant and other supporters.

“I’ve been briefed on the pending executive order,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who urged the president to bolster border enforcement (The New York Times). “I certainly support it because I’ve been advocating for these measures for years.” 

Some Democrats believe Biden’s about-face to act on his own and then blame Republicans for blocking a bipartisan Senate border bill this year is smart politics, albeit late in the debate. Republicans and some Democratic officials, including in New York City, echo former President Trump in arguing that a “crisis” surge of migrants and asylum-seekers into the U.S. has become an expensive national security risk prompted by Biden’s early reversal of Trump’s immigration policies.

“Why are we still waiting for Biden to do something on his own that is viewed as meaningful and dramatic about the border?” David Axelrod, former campaign and White House adviser to then-President Obama said during his May 21 podcast. “He should get caught trying, for sure,” he added.

“I don’t think anybody could tell you right now what the Biden message is,” Axelrod continued.

“Messages are not an amalgam of issues. Messages are larger. Messages are narrative, and it’s not clear what the Biden narrative is right now, and that’s where the time elapsing is really concerning.”

The White House is telling lawmakers that Biden’s order would shut down asylum requests to the U.S.-Mexico border once the number of daily migrant encounters hits 2,500 — only reopening when the number drops to an average of 1,500, according to The Associated Press.

With that construct, Biden could close the border today because daily figures are higher than the new cutoff sources say he’s poised to impose. The administration expects an immediate court challenge.

Polls in battleground states show that immigration is a drag on Biden, along with the economy. The president’s lagging support in surveys is concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who nonetheless think that the U.S. system needs major changes or even complete deconstruction. They are skeptical that Biden is the change agent they believe the country needs. 

MORE IN CONGRESS: Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) was photo-bombed Monday by his expressive young son while the lawmaker appeared on C-SPAN during a floor speech, recounts The Hill’s Judy Kurtz (with video). “This is what I get for telling my son Guy to smile at the camera for his little brother,” Rose quipped on social platform X.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), elected in 1994, announced Monday she has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer at age 74 (The Hill).

Anthony Fauci, retired since 2022 from his role as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, clashed with House Republicans on Monday during an investigative hearing about COVID-19. He defended the role of the National Institutes of Health, said the government’s six-feet-apart social distancing pandemic guidance originated at the Centers for Disease Control and Protection and disputed misinformation about virology and science (The Hill). In other words, it was a partisan hearing that returned to familiar controversies with a favorite target of the GOP. Fauci, 83, who says he relies on a security detail because of “credible death threats,” grew emotional when speaking about public hostilities and warnings that affect his wife and daughters (The Hill).

LEADING THE DAY

POLITICS

THE FAMILY BUSINESS: Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), the son of embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), is running for his political life as his scandal-plagued father threatens to drag him down in his bid for reelection. The younger Menendez is running for another term representing New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District, The Hill’s Jared Gans reports, a solidly liberal area where the winner of the primary will almost certainly win the general election in November. But he’s facing a formidable primary challenge today from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla, which comes amid growing scrutiny over the congressman’s relationship with his father, who has been charged with bribery.

“The entanglements of Sen. Menendez are the reason why this is even a race in the first place,” said New Jersey-based Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck. “That is the elephant in the room, and the race could very much play out as a referendum on Sen. Menendez, which would obviously make for an electoral challenge for the congressman.”

Adding to the complications: Sen. Menendez’s Monday announcement that he will seek reelection in November, but run as an Independent, not a Democrat. The longtime senator is facing numerous charges in a wide-ranging corruption case in which prosecutors allege he and his wife accepted bribes in exchange for favors for three businessmen. Prosecutors also accuse him of using his position to act as an agent on behalf of the Egyptian government (New Jersey Globe and The Hill).

👉 Veepstakes: In a new series, The Hill is taking a look at Trump’s possible vice-presidential picks. Among them are Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and former presidential candidate, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Scott has become a constant presence in Trump’s orbit since dropping his own presidential bid late last year, stumping for the former president and acting as a key surrogate on national television, writes The Hill’s Cheyanne M. Daniels. Now, Scott is considered one of the candidates on Trump’s shortlist; if he were selected and the ticket were to win in November, he would become the GOP’s first Black vice president.

“Tim Scott would be a great choice,” said Brian Seitchik, a Republican strategist and former Trump campaign alum. “He was certainly qualified to be President of the United States, he opens up the doors to the Black community, who President Trump’s polling better in the Black community [this] cycle than he has previously, and Senator Scott certainly encourages African American voters to take sort of a fresh look at Donald Trump.”

ZOOM IN

COURTS

OPENING STATEMENTS START TODAY in Hunter Biden’s Delaware gun trial, following federal charges involving his purchase of a firearm in 2018. Federal prosecutors contend the president’s son made false statements regarding his use of illegal drugs when obtaining the gun and then unlawfully possessed it for 11 days. Twelve jurors and four alternates were selected Monday in the first of what could be two federal criminal trials involving Biden, after prospective jurors were questioned over their views on gun rights, political prosecutions and whether the defendant’s father could influence their ability to be fair and impartial. The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld preview what to expect as the trial gets underway.

The New York Times: First lady Jill Biden attended jury selection in Delaware on Monday.

Trump called on the Supreme Court to act and annul his conviction ahead of his July sentencing after he was found guilty on 34 felony counts in his New York City hush money trial. Trump, in a Sunday post on Truth Social, complained that his sentencing in the New York case is scheduled four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. The former president also used the post to attack Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who brought the charges against him, and Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw the trial, and argued it was unfair those two “will make a decision which will determine the future of our Nation” (The Hill).

ELSEWHERE

INTERNATIONAL

CEASE-FIRE TALKS: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to keep his government from unraveling over a new Israeli cease-fire proposal, as two key right-wing ministers doubled down on threats to leave the coalition. Biden stepped up the pressure on Netanyahu on Friday, outlining a new cease-fire proposal that he said Israel had endorsed. But Netanyahu, under international pressure, may not be able to end the war in Gaza without losing his grip on power.

Biden on Monday urged Qatar’s ruling emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, to pressure Hamas to accept the cease-fire proposal Israel offered (The Hill).

Hamas officials have said they view the proposal “positively” but have not said whether they would accept. Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, said Sunday that “the ball” was now “in the Israeli court.” Netanyahu told a parliamentary committee on Monday that any “claims that we have agreed to a cease-fire without our conditions being met are incorrect,” and that Biden only publicized part of the proposal (The Washington Post and The New York Times). Israeli officials are Netanyahu’s statements in recent days could sabotage the “constructive ambiguity” used by negotiators to draft a proposed Israeli hostage-ceasefire deal that could be accepted by Hamas (Axios).

Addendum: Netanyahu and U.S. congressional leaders are still working on a date for the prime minister to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress. Netanyahu denied it would occur on June 13, as reported.

Russia on Monday warned the U.S. could face “fatal consequences” if it ignores Moscow’s warnings that Ukraine should not use weapons provided by Washington to attack Russia. The Biden administration quietly gave Kyiv permission to use some U.S.-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian territory, last week, following similar permissions from some European countries (Politico).

Elections: In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared Tuesday to be on a narrower course that initially projected to secure another five years in office. Early results in the country’s general election suggest a surprising setback for the two-term prime minister. … Here’s how Mexico, famous for its macho culture, elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Her win caps a decades-long campaign for gender parity in politics, a key element of the country’s transition to democracy (The Washington Post).

THE CLOSER

And finally … The U.S. Olympic women’s gymnastics team a month from now in France will almost certainly include Simone Biles, 27, who captured her ninth U.S. all-around title in Texas on Sunday, plus all four apparatus titles, extending a run in which she has been unbeaten in domestic and international all-around competition since making her comeback last year. The other four U.S. women’s slots at the Olympics are a bit more in flux with a month to go before Olympic team trials.

Biles, a seasoned U.S. champion in a sport impacted by extended staying power among athletes, has seven Olympic medals, including four gold, one silver and two bronze.