It’s Wednesday. I hope you all had a summery Memorial Day weekend! Here’s what’s happening today:

Jury deliberations have just begun in former President Trump’s hush money trial.
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill released an election forecast showing the odds of Republicans and Democrats winning the White House and Congress this fall. Keep reading to see, but I’ll tell you — the situation is much better for Republicans.China is sending two giant pandas to Washington, D.C., later this year! 🥳

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Jurors in former President Trump’s hush money trial are now deliberating after weeks of testimony and then a long day of closing statements on Tuesday.

What happened this morning: Judge Juan Merchan read instructions to the jurors, including reminders about biases and legal definitions.

From The New York Times: ‘Judge’s Instructions Will Be a Road Map for Jury Weighing Trump’s Fate’

How long will it take?: The jury could agree on a ruling in just a few hours, or it could take days or possibly weeks.

The gist of the closing statements: Trump’s team focused on squashing former Trump fixer Michael Cohen’s credibility. Cohen is a key witness to convict Trump. Meanwhile, the prosecution spent nearly five hours rehashing all of its evidence, including emphasizing that it does not hinge on Cohen’s testimony. Tuesday’s court proceedings lasted until roughly 8 p.m. (!)

Five takeaways from the Trump trial’s closing arguments

Why Michael Cohen’s testimony will likely be critical in the verdict

What to expect with the ruling: If the jury finds Trump guilty, it will further fuel validity to the claims against him. But if the former president is found not guilty, his team is expected to take a massive victory lap and raise doubts on the three other pending criminal cases against him. The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports on how the political world is bracing for the Trump verdict.

Read more: ‘If Trump were convicted in his hush money trial, here’s what he could face next,’ via The Washington Post’s David Nakamura

Trump’s defense team is eyeing one juror in particular: The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo reports that most of the jury won’t make eye contact with Trump, which is a worrying sign for any defense team. But there is one juror whose body language seems more favorable to the defendant — nodding, making eye contact, etc. It’s possible this is just to be friendly, but it is worth noting. (The Bulwark)

THIS MORNING — Trump has a new argument: The former president claimed this morning that the judge is preventing him from using an advice-of-counsel defense. Basically, that means Trump could argue that he did whatever lawyers told him to do. Yes, but: His own lawyers said they would not use this as the defense strategy. Here’s an explainer

Actor Robert De Niro showed up outside the courthouse Tuesday along with two Capitol Police officers — who were injured during the Jan. 6, 2021, riots — to speak on behalf of the Biden campaign. He clashed with protesters, yelling that they are “gangsters” and “f— you.” 📹 Watch the NBC News clip

📹 Watch De Niro arrive at the courthouse

This morning: Trump railed against De Niro, posting, “I never knew how small, both mentally and physically, Wacko Former Actor Robert De Niro was.” 💬 Read Trump’s full Truth Social post

Whoops: The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman reported from the courthouse: “There was an amazing moment just now as a video begins playing on the cell phone of someone on Trump’s team and it briefly interrupts the judge. Phone usage is prohibited in the courtroom, but as usual, the defense team’s phone usage is basically ignored by the court officers.”

It was a Mickey D’s kinda day: CBS News’s Jake Rosen noticed that “as Trump final arguments take a break for lunch… 8 massive bags of [McDonald’s] were carried upstairs by suited men here at 100 Centre St.”

The lines were particularly long on Tuesday: The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld posted a photo of the courthouse scene.

At 5:15 a.m. on Tuesday: Here are photos of the scene, via The Hill’s Ella Lee.

The Smithsonian’s National Zoo announced this morning that China is sending two pandas to Washington, D.C., later this year! (The Hill)

OK, so let me introduce: 2-year-old pandas, Bao Li, a male, and Qing Bao, a female

Bao Li is related to D.C. pandas: The Washington Post pointed out that “Bao Li has family roots in the District. He is the son of Bao Bao, a female giant panda who was born at the zoo in 2013, and the grandson of Mei Xiang and Tian Tian, the panda couple whose departure from the zoo last year broke hearts and signaled the end of an era.”

The question I am constantly asked is to predict what will happen in November. And while that is impossible to do, I have some new data that will tell you where the election stands.

At this point, Republicans are favored to win the White House, the Senate and the House, according to a new forecast model released by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill. Specifically:

The White House: Trump has a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency.
The Senate: Republicans have an 80 percent chance of winning the Senate majority.The House: Republicans have a 64 percent chance of keeping the House majority.

How DDHQ calculated those predictions: Election forecasters used “200 different data points … including voter registration numbers for each party, demographics, past election results, fundraising totals and polling averages.”

Read more on the November predictions, via The Hill’s Jared Gans: ‘Trump, GOP are early favorites for White House, Congress’

📊 Check out the The Hill/DDHQ’s election forecaster

Op-ed on the prediction, via DDHQ’s Scott Tranter, Ryan Gest and Zachary Donnini

“Texas’ GOP primary runoffs put Republican intraparty divisions on full display Tuesday night as several mainline conservative incumbents fended off challenges from their right even as other incumbents got picked off.”

Read more: ‘5 takeaways from Texas’s contentious primary runoffs’

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil compiled a list of six state legislatures where partisan control is up for grabs.

The six states: Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire and Wisconsin

🥘 Celebrate: Today is National Coq Au Vin Day! (A French dish made with chicken)

😜 What a random, but funny, assortment: Mashable reports that a few new emojis may be coming to smartphones soon, including a baggy-eyed face.

👗 Interesting read: The Cut’s Chantal Fernandez found six pretty similar dresses with vastly different price points and compared the quality. Read the comparison

⚡️ Wow wow wow: Check out this video and this photo of lightning appearing to hit the Washington Monument over the weekend. And look at this time lapse of a storm passing over the U.S. Capitol.

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Philadelphia this afternoon. (all times Eastern)

Because you made it this far, watch this bird with some mooooooves.

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