Poll: Majority of Americans aren’t paying attention to Trump’s hush money trial – PBS NewsHour
Laura Santhanam Laura Santhanam
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As a New York jury hears testimony in former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial, a majority of Americans – 54 percent – say this and other investigations into the presumptive Republican nominee are fair in order to figure out if he has broken the law, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. Yet 45 percent of Americans overall say these investigations are unfair and designed to obstruct his 2024 presidential campaign.
This latest poll was conducted during the trial’s first week of testimony, and while the Supreme Court heard arguments over Trump’s claim of prosecutorial immunity.
Overall, 47 percent of Americans think Trump has done something illegal, including 86 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents. Meanwhile, another 30 percent say he has acted unethically, but not illegally. And 21 percent say Trump has done nothing wrong.
Republicans are the least likely demographic to say that he has done something illegal. Instead, GOP voters are almost evenly split between 46 percent saying Trump has acted unethically, and another 45 percent saying he has done nothing wrong.
Asked how closely they were following Trump’s hush money case, a majority in this poll – 55 percent – said they were not following it much or at all, versus 45 who reported paying some or a lot of attention to the trial.
Many Americans, including voters, are taking cues from most Republican leaders who continue to stand by Trump, even as he continues to face criminal and civil charges and investigations, said Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
“It tells voters it’s not that big of a deal,” Walter said. “If you have a party that is for the most part rallying around a candidate, it is hard for negative information about that candidate to really take hold among partisans.”
The sheer number of court cases, 88 separate charges and multiple levels of legal actions overwhelm most people, Republican strategist Sarah Longwell said.
“One of Trump’s negative superpowers is being able to flood the zone,” she said. While some people tend to follow certain cases, focus group interviews and other surveys suggest people don’t painstakingly follow every case against Trump, Longwell said.
“It’s a lot to ask for people to track.”
Key support for President Joe Biden’s leadership is sliding even as half of voters say they would vote for him over former President Donald Trump if the election were held today, according to the latest poll.
Among the people who say they are definitely voting in November, 52 percent say they disapprove of Biden, compared to 46 who approve.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The majority of U.S. adults – 54 percent – said they disapproved of Biden’s performance while in office. That’s an increase of three percentage points since March (narrowly within the margin of error). Biden’s unfavorability among U.S. adults amounts to his worst rating since September 2019, according to Marist polling data. For an incumbent up for reelection, that dip is moving in the wrong direction, but it’s not unexpected, said Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist Poll. Time will tell if it is insurmountable.
Independents have “gone back and forth” for the president and generally have been “more fluid depending on what’s going on and what they’re reacting to,” Miringoff said. Biden’s most ardent supporters at this point in his bid for reelection are white women who graduated from college, he said.
Biden’s unfavorability is surpassed by that of his presumptive opponent, with 56 percent of U.S. adults saying they have an unfavorable impression of Trump (also up since March, and within the margin of error).
“Most of the numbers are running fairly consistent, which is not surprising because most of the candidates are fairly well-known, and a lot of the support is fairly baked in already,” Miringoff said.
Among U.S. registered voters, eight in 10 said they were “definitely voting” in the presidential election this November, and 64 percent of voters said they already know who they will vote for and nothing will change their minds.
At the same time, 26 percent of voters said they could be persuaded to change their minds about their presidential pick, and an additional 10 percent said they have not decided who they will back. Independents were significantly less likely than Republicans or Democrats to say they will vote no matter what.
Looking at support for the likely contenders for the White House, Biden and Trump were roughly neck-and-neck with 50 percent of registered voters saying they would support the current president. Meanwhile, another 48 percent said they would back Trump. According to this latest poll, 2 percent of registered voters were undecided.
With Biden’s slight lead in this latest poll, which falls within the margin of error, Longwell said Biden is “starting to trend better in national polling,” but the real test will come closer to Election Day in a handful of critical swing states “that are going to decide the election.”
When given the choice of picking between the two frontrunners and a handful of third-party candidates, about one in 10 registered voters said they would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Compared to one-on-one matchup, the third-party candidates drained slightly more support from Biden than Trump in this poll.
Rising fascism and extremism was the top concern for Americans thinking about threats to the future of their country.
According to this latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, 3 in 10 U.S. adults saw fascism and extremism as the most concerning issue. That was particularly true among Biden supporters, Democrats and white women who graduated from college.
The prospect of the United States becoming weak alarmed an additional 21 percent of Americans in this latest poll, and a “lack of values” worried 24 percent.
Thinking about values, 36 percent of U.S. adults said the idea of treating others as they wish to be treated is the most important value they wish to teach the younger generations.
A plurality of Americans – 48 percent – feel a second term for Trump would weaken democracy, and almost as many – 46 percent – say the same about Biden. In addition, 37 percent of Americans said returning Trump to the White House could strengthen democracy, signaling significantly more confidence in the former president than the 30 percent who said Biden would strengthen democracy. Meanwhile, more independents worry about Biden weakening democracy than do about Trump.
On the other hand, Americans overall are more likely to say they trust Biden. More than a third – 35 percent – felt Biden mostly says things that are true, compared to 30 percent of Americans who felt the same about Trump. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement: While 39 percent of Americans said Trump mostly says things that are false, 32 percent felt the same way about Biden.
These attitudes about whether a reelected Trump or Biden would pose a threat to democracy shed light on the bases of both parties, Walter said. To pierce that partisan divide, particularly among Republicans, Walter said two things would need to happen. More high-profile leaders would have to break with GOP support for Trump, and Trump’s own words or actions (or a criminal conviction) would have to motivate voters to reevaluate their support for their party’s presumptive nominee.
“What Biden has to do is get voters who are not just base Democratic voters, or reflexive Biden voters, to say, ‘I may disagree with Biden on some issues,’ or ‘I may like the way Trump does other things, but fundamentally, I think one of them is a bigger threat.’”
The PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on April 22 through April 25 that polled 1,199 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points and 1,109 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Left: Forty-seven percent of Americans think former President Donald Trump has done something illegal, including 86 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. Meanwhile, another 30 percent say he has acted unethically, but not illegally. And 21 percent say Trump has done nothing wrong. Photo by Victor J. Blue-Pool/Getty Images
By Hannah Grabenstein
By Chris Megerian, Josh Boak, Associated Press
By News Desk
Laura Santhanam Laura Santhanam
Laura Santhanam is the Health Reporter and Coordinating Producer for Polling for the PBS NewsHour, where she has also worked as the Data Producer. Follow @LauraSanthanam
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