The threat to Trump in the hush money case – The Washington Post
A former president of the United States went on trial for the first time in American history on Monday. And as any political analyst will tell you, this Manhattan “hush money”/election interference case is the least concerning to voters among Donald Trump’s four indictments.
But what’s also true is that Americans have overwhelmingly found the facts of this case to be problematic. And they could soon learn (or relearn) plenty about something that potential Trump voters especially haven’t followed closely but could be troubling to them.
Let’s start with the first part of that.
It’s easy to cast the New York charges against Trump — his alleged falsification of business records to conceal a hush money payment to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels late in the 2016 campaign — as small-bore. And relative to Trump’s allegedly subverting American democracy after the 2020 election and jeopardizing national security by withholding classified documents, it is.
But this is also a situation that Americans were quite concerned about when it broke through in 2018.
Polling back then showed nearly 8 in 10 Americans regarded Trump’s actions as either illegal or unethical, and nearly 4 in 10 thought he had broken the law.
Those numbers generally exceeded those of Trump’s other controversies at the time, including the Russia investigation. They even rivaled later events like the ones that led to Trump’s two impeachments: the Ukraine scandal and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
More recently, polling shows fewer Americans think Trump did something illegal in the hush money case than in the other cases. But the percentage who think he did something illegal or unethical — more than 7 in 10 in AP-NORC polling — is actually greater than in his other cases.
While the percentage who viewed Trump’s actions as illegal has never eclipsed 40 percent, that might undersell how problematic Americans could find — and arguably have found — the hush money to be.
When the controversy touched off in 2018, Economist/YouGov polling showed Americans said 56 percent to 20 percent that it would be a crime for a candidate “to pay someone to remain silent about an issue that may affect the outcome of an election.” (That’s actually a pretty apt summary of what would become the Manhattan charges.) That number was considerably lower — 37 percent — among Republicans.
But when YouGov asked the same question again on the eve of Trump’s indictment last year, Americans said 72 percent to 11 percent that it would be a crime. And suddenly, 73 percent of Republicans agreed. That’s a pretty overwhelming bipartisan consensus.
The apparent reason was that Trump supporters didn’t yet understand the context of the question was about Trump — who wasn’t mentioned. They hadn’t tuned in to news about the looming indictment. (Indeed, after Trump was indicted weeks later, the percentage of Republicans who said it would be a crime quickly dropped back below a majority.)
It all raises a familiar and vital question about Trump’s 2024 campaign — about people’s memories.
How much have people simply forgotten what they didn’t like about him? And how much will being reminded about that — and being more deeply informed about potentially criminal actions in cases like the Manhattan one — affect the presidential race?
What’s clear is that Trump supporters and independents are at a significant deficit when it comes to understanding these cases:
The total picture suggests that lots of Americans and even Republicans could soon learn — or relearn — plenty about a situation they regard as unsavory or even illegal.
It might not be as much of a dealbreaker for voters as Trump’s other cases, and there is a real threat for prosecutors and Democrats in having Americans regard this process as overzealous.
That doesn’t mean it will be a proud moment for Trump.
Former president Donald Trump’s criminal hush money trial begins Monday in New York with jury selection. Follow live updates from the trial.
Jury selection: Here’s what 12 New Yorkers said when we asked them if they could judge Trump impartially. This is how jurors will be picked for the trial.
The case: The investigation involves a $130,000 payment made to Stormy Daniels, an adult-film actress, during the 2016 presidential campaign. It’s one of many ongoing investigations involving Trump. Here are some of the key people in the case.
The charges: Trump is charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Falsifying business records is a felony in New York when there is an “intent to defraud” that includes an intent to “commit another crime or to aid or conceal” another crime. He has pleaded not guilty. Here’s what to know about the charges — and any potential sentence.
Can Trump still run for president? The short answer, legal experts said, is yes. The U.S. Constitution does not forbid Trump, or anyone else, from serving as president if convicted of a felony.