Democratic and Republican strategists on what early primary results mean for Biden, Trump – PBS NewsHour
Geoff Bennett Geoff Bennett
Saher Khan Saher Khan
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President Biden and former President Trump’s victories in the Michigan primaries further shored up an election rematch. Trump won with 68% of the GOP vote while Biden locked down 81% with some Democratic voters casting uncommitted ballots in protest of the handling of the war in Gaza. Geoff Bennett discussed the results with Republican strategist Kevin Madden and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir.
Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors.
Geoff Bennett:
President Biden and former President Trump both secured victories in Michigan’s primaries last night. Mr. Trump claimed 68 percent of the Republican vote over challenger Nikki Haley, and President Biden won 81 percent of the Democratic vote in that state, with over 100,000 voters casting uncommitted ballots in protest of the president’s approach toward the Israel-Hamas war.
For analysis, we turn to Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who advised Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, who served as campaign manager for Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign.
It’s great to have you both here.
And, Faiz, we will start with you and talk about the number of uncommitted ballots in the Michigan primary. I have been talking and texting with Democratic officials and campaign hands today, and there are those who say that, look, this really shows that President Biden has to really fight to keep his coalition together heading into November.
And there are other Democrats who say Michigan has a tradition of these — sort of these ballot protests. Yes, the campaign needs to be aware of it, but they have eight months to turn it around.
When you look at these numbers, what do you see?
Faiz Shakir, Democratic Strategist:
I see that there are people who, because of American democracy, were able to express their hurt and their pain about the Middle East war through the ballot box, right, not only just in a protest, but also to vote.
And I think, for President Biden, he’s got good information now, right? He’s not only in strong standing with Democrats, but he knows that he’s got some issues with young people, with Arab and Muslim Americans, with a progressive left that he can fix and cure and heal.
To his credit, you could imagine a different candidate who gave the stiff-arm to the — hey, if you don’t like me, then go vote for Trump. He didn’t do that. What he’s maintained, I think, as a posture, said, I want you in this coalition. Even if you didn’t might disagree with where I’m at right now on this policy, I want you to know that I am values-aligned with you.
So he’s got some time and period. Ultimately, his biggest problem is fixing the policy. So he’s going to the State of the Union. He’s working — as you know, working his brains out with the secretary of state trying to get a six week cease-fire and a hostage release. If he can do it, I do think it’ll help so much.
And that’s what people are asking, because it’s not as if the movement has, like, specific, concrete solutions attached. They’re saying, do something. Hold Netanyahu accountable. Show us that you hear and feel our pain.
Geoff Bennett:
And, Kevin, let’s talk about Nikki Haley, because she is still in this race after suffering six stinging defeats. What’s her endgame at this point?
Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist:
Well, I think the endgame is actually a long game for Nikki Haley.
There is a great value, I think, if you look at the trajectory of where the party is going, in Nikki Haley being the presumptive front-runner for 2028. And that’s, I think, where her campaign is actually going now. They spent a lot of time investing in the infrastructure and growing her national profile.
And campaigns never really run out of reasons to run. They only run out of money. Her donors have actually still stepped up and funded her campaign to this part — to this point. And I think that’s one of the things that she’s going to continue to do, to try to be a voice in the party and also set herself up for a potential 2028 run.
Geoff Bennett:
Could she stay in this all the way to the convention? Because there are Republicans now who say that, look, if she shows up with a certain number of delegates, that allows her to exert more power on the convention floor?
Kevin Madden:
It’s hard to see,because I think the resource question gets more and more difficult when you don’t have any really delegates to show for your work and a real path to victory at a convention.
So I think that’s become — that will become a difficult sort of consideration with Haley and her supporters and her donors over the next few weeks.
Geoff Bennett:
Meantime, Faiz, the super PAC that supports Robert F. Kennedy Jr., they say they now have enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Arizona and Georgia.
And Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin were states that Joe Biden won by a narrow margin, I think less than 30,000 votes, if memory serves. What does that do to his campaign, to Biden’s campaign? And how do they have to sort of course-correct for this?
Faiz Shakir:
It’s unclear exactly where RFK’s votes will come from. I do think it’s a hurt to Joe Biden, because my impression coming into this election is, people know where they stand with Donald Trump.
I think he’s got a hard cap on the amount of support that exists for him out there. And if you’re in the Trump campaign, what you’re trying to do is peel off the votes from Joe Biden. So you look at — we were talking about Michigan, for instance. Last time, Biden got 2.8 million votes in Michigan. Trump got about 2.6 million.
So if you’re going in here now in Michigan, again, Georgia, Arizona — you mentioned those states, those critical battlegrounds, where the margin was even thinner. They know that they probably can count on some enthusiasm for Trump to reach that same number or around that same number.
What they need to do is drag down Biden’s number. And each of these third-party candidates’ efforts is, I think, going to dilute and hurt Joe Biden. And so my impression coming into this is, the more that RFK is out there on ballots, it’s going to hurt our side and I’m concerned about it.
Geoff Bennett:
And, Kevin, Faiz raises the point about enthusiasm. Let’s talk about enthusiasm for Donald Trump, because if you look at Iowa and track all the way to Michigan, Donald Trump is losing somewhere between 20 to 40 percent of the Republican base, who say they’re not going to vote for him or that they’re not entirely won over just yet.
What does that say about his strength as a candidate heading into a general election?
Kevin Madden:
Well, I think, in a primary perspective, he’s still actually running one of the more dominant primary campaigns that I have ever witnessed in my time in politics.
And we also — if we look back to 2016, Donald Trump won the Republican nomination by winning only 44 percent of the popular vote inside that fight. So he’s in a much better position than he was in 2016, and he won in 2016.
But there’s still a but here, which is the profile of the Nikki Haley voter is crucial to Donald Trump winning in November. Those — that Nikki Haley voter right now is more moderate, more pragmatic, probably more likely to come from these suburb areas. If you look at the Michigan results, a lot of Nikki Haley’s stronger counties were those collar counties around Detroit or around Grand Rapids.
Those are the crucial areas for winning that state in November. So Donald Trump has some work to do. He can’t let those voters stay home. He can’t let them become never-Trumpers. He has to get them to the point where they’re going to essentially be nose-holders. They may not like Donald Trump, but he’s better than the alternative. He’s better than Joe Biden.
That’s going to be the charge and the challenge for the Trump campaign from here — all the way from here to November.
Geoff Bennett:
And looking ahead to tomorrow, there’s going to be quite the split screen with both President Trump and Donald Trump at the southern border on separate trips aimed at sort of touting their different views on immigration and their solutions for the southern border.
Can Democrats in this election cycle, do you think, really chip into the polling advantage that Republicans have on handling border security?
Faiz Shakir:
I mean, if it’s an immigration election, I think it won’t go well for Joe Biden.
I mean, one of the things he’s trying to do with this visit, I think, is to decrease the salience of the issue. It is increasing in salience. The Gallup polls indicate that this is becoming a greater concern for people of both parties, partly because of reality.
I mean, as more and more mayors across America are dealing with it and trying to figure out housing and all kinds of employment practices and how you would have the funds and resources to deal with them, it’s becoming a serious problem.
It also is an economic problem. One thing that Democrats haven’t often talked about is the corporate exploitation of the low-wage worker. I think it is a message that could resonate with a lot of people. However, if you think about this split screen, they’re trying to decrease the issue salience.
What Biden wants is this election to be fought on democracy, on abortion rights, on maybe even core economic issues that distinguish him and Trump. And I think, by going to the border, he’s saying, hey, don’t — know that if you — this is a major issue. I’m on it too.
Geoff Bennett:
Yes.
And as Georgia Governor Brian Kemp says, every state now is a border state. How is this manifesting in the election?
Kevin Madden:
Well, it’s the number one issue right now. That’s one of the things that’s interesting, is how much it’s surged to the top of the issue priorities for many Americans, an eight-point surge.
Gallup came out with a poll yesterday. It was an eight-point surge just over the last month. So I think you’re right that, if it becomes an — if this becomes — immigration is a top issue like that, and it becomes a referendum on the Biden record on immigration, it’s going to be a very, very difficult challenge for Biden to overcome a lot of the negative views that many voters have about this, and I think particularly in these swing areas of battleground states around the country.
If you think about the suburbs of Atlanta, the Maricopa County in Arizona, even as far north as in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, those suburbs, border security is a huge issue for those voters. So I think it’s an advantage Trump on that.
Geoff Bennett:
Kevin McCarthy, Faiz Shakir, thank you both. Great conversation. Appreciate it.
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Geoff Bennett serves as co-anchor of PBS NewsHour. He also serves as an NBC News and MSNBC political contributor.
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Saher Khan is a reporter-producer for the PBS NewsHour.
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