Biden, Trump deadlocked in Marquette Poll of Wisconsin voters – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
With nine months to go until the 2024 election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in a hypothetical rematch in Wisconsin, according to the newest Marquette University Law School Poll.
Wisconsin is one of just a handful of states that will decide the next presidential contest and as of now, Biden and Trump are each tied at 49% among registered voters in the battleground state where statewide races are often decided by just a few thousand votes.
Just 2% of those surveyed in the most recent poll, released Wednesday, said they haven’t decided on whom to support in the November election.
Among likely voters, Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points when third-party candidates are an option, which is well within the poll’s margin of error. Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin said it makes more sense to focus on registered voters than on likely voters at this point in the election cycle.
But Biden’s position falls significantly in a hypothetical matchup against former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who leads Biden in the latest poll by 16 percentage points.
“That’s why you get these big differences … the dissatisfaction with Biden is muted when he’s paired against Trump but it’s exacerbated when he’s paired against this Republican alternative (Haley),” Franklin said.
Within the Republican primary for president, however, Trump trounces Haley 64% to 22% in the poll, making it unlikely Haley will be in a position to face Biden. Fourteen percent of Republican voters in Wisconsin are undecided in this latest poll.
Franklin said Haley, the former South Carolina governor, has “consolidated the folks in the party that don’t care for Trump, but it’s only 22% of the primary (vote).”
“So unless those kinds of attitudes change, this is very difficult, but she has clearly consolidated the part of the party that does dislike or have reservations about Trump,” he said.
In November, Biden held a narrow lead in Wisconsin in a hypothetical rematch with Trump. He led Trump 50% to 48% among registered voters, well within the November survey’s margin of error.
Biden’s age, 81, is an issue to most voters polled, with 61% saying the president is too old to be president. Just 29% of voters said the same about Trump. Biden is four years older than Trump.
More:‘They’re both dinosaurs’: Concerns about age drive lack of enthusiasm for Biden and Trump
The poll highlighted a potential enthusiasm gap in a Biden-Trump matchup.
Among voters who are “very enthusiastic” about the election, Trump led Biden by 19 points. But in all other categories, Biden led Trump by an average of 18 points.
“So what happens in the election if those bottom three bars decide not to turn out … or go for a third party candidate?” Franklin asked.
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The February poll surveyed 930 voters in Wisconsin between Jan. 24 and Jan. 31. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2%, Franklin said.
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