Campaign Report

Campaign Report

The Big Story 

The Democratic Party’s edge over Republicans among Black and Hispanic voters has seen a drastic drop in the past three years, according to a new poll. 

© The Associated Press

Black and Hispanic voters are much less likely to align themselves with the
Democratic Party than they were just three years ago, according to a new Gallup poll.

The news could spell trouble for Democrats
hoping to retain power in the White House and Senate this year and reclaim control of the House.

The minority voter base has long been a
reliable stronghold for Democrats, but Gallup found that Black voters surveyed who said they identify as Democrats or lean Democratic has fallen about 20 percent in the past three years, boosting the share of Black voters who identify as Republican or lean Republican.

In the latest poll, 66 percent of Black adults surveyed said they identify as or lean Democratic, while 19 percent said they identify as or lean Republican.

The trend matches the decrease in Democratic support among Hispanic voters, who also are showing slight shifts toward the Republican Party.

According to Gallup, the Democrats’
12-point advantage among Hispanics surveyed in 2023 is the lowest since at least 2011, when Gallup began interviewing respondents in Spanish.

The latest findings show that 47 percent of Hispanic voters say they at least lean Democratic, while
35 percent said they favor Republicans.

The poll reflects a growing shift among minority voters, who have been seen as stronghold voters for Democratic candidates.

A GenForward poll in December found that 20 percent of Black voters said they would rather vote for “someone else” other than former President Trump or President Biden in November, even if they are their respective party’s nominee.

That poll found that 17 percent of Black voters surveyed said they would vote for Trump, who is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, compared to 63 percent who said they would vote for Biden.

About 92 percent of Black voters cast their ballots for Biden in 2020, according to an analysis from Pew.

Gallup surveyed 12,145 adults for its poll in 2023. It has a margin of error of 1 percentage point, but the margins of error for smaller demographics range between 2 percentage points and 4 percentage points.

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I’m Liz Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington. 

Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Essential Reads 

Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage:

Trump campaign seizes on Haley’s Nevada loss: ‘Brutal’

Christie balks at backing Haley: Imagine if she ‘turned around and endorsed Donald Trump’

Karl Rove calls Michelle Obama 2024 theories ‘pure lunacy’

The Countdown 

Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:

2024 Watch 

© The Associated Press

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley placed second in the
Nevada Republican presidential primary behind the “none of these candidates” option on Tuesday, and former President Trump isn’t holding back from mocking her over the feat.

“A bad night for Nikki Haley,” Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, said in a Truth Social post Wednesday. “Losing by almost 30 points in Nevada to ‘None of These Candidates.’”

Haley received 39.5 percent of the Nevada GOP primary vote, while “none of these candidates” claimed 63.2 percent.

“Watch, she’ll soon claim Victory!” Trump added online in a nod to Haley’s claim after coming in third in Iowa that the caucus-goers there had shown that there’s a two-person race between herself and Trump.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who claimed a distant second in Iowa to Trump, has since dropped out of the nomination race and endorsed the former president.

Nevada wasn’t a high-stakes race, as the state’s GOP flouted the state-run primary plan and opted to hold its own caucuses, which take place Thursday. Trump has focused his efforts on the caucuses, while Haley opted to appear on the ballot.

Haley didn’t campaign in Nevada, calling the primary/caucus dispute part of a GOP establishment plan “rigged” for Trump. She’s focused recent attention on the primary in her home state, South Carolina, on Feb. 24.

In Other News 

Branch out with a different read from The Hill:

74 percent of Republicans say it’s fine for Trump to be dictator for a day

A new survey found that a majority of Republicans say it is fine for former President Trump to be a dictator for the day if he wins the presidential election. The survey from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and YouGov found that 74 percent of Republican voters said it would be a good idea if Trump follows through on his remarks in which he said he would be a dictator only on the first day of his second term. Twenty-six …

Democrats’ advantages among Black, Hispanic adults hit new lows: Gallup

The Democratic Party’s advantage over Republicans in party preferences for Black and Hispanic adults in the U.S. has decreased by nearly 20 percentage points in the past three years, according to a new report from Gallup. The findings, published Wednesday, show the difference in how many Black adults identify as Democrat or lean Democratic and those who identify as Republican or lean Republican decreased from 66 percent …

Around the Nation 

Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections:

What We’re Reading 

Election news we’ve flagged from other outlets:

Elsewhere Today 

Key stories on The Hill right now:

The Memo: Former Trump White House lawyer predicts crushing defeat at Supreme Court

A former attorney for the Trump White House predicts that the Supreme Court will rule unanimously against the 45th president on his claims to be immune from criminal prosecution. Ty Cobb, who was special counsel to the White House as Trump sought to fend off the investigation headed by Robert Mueller, was speaking after an appeals court … Read more

McClintock defends vote against Mayorkas impeachment: Greene should ‘read the Constitution’

Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) on Wednesday defended his decision to vote against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas after helping sink the move the night before. Fellow Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), a leading proponent of Mayorkas’s impeachment, had said McClintock is “clearly” not …
Read more

What People Think 

Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill: