MANCHESTER, N.H. — It’s Tuesday. Happy primary day! I’m at the Airport Diner this morning and it’s buzzing with presidential primary watchers. It’s actually not that cold today (by New England winter standards). Though I am still rocking my business casual look with L.L. Bean duck boots.

Here’s what’s happening today: 

GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley is hoping that a strong finish in New Hampshire could fuel her challenge against former President Trump.  

We’re tracking how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) supporters will vote today after his abrupt exit Sunday. 

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were announced this morning. Keep reading for the highlights. 

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com.  Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Happy first-in-the-nation primary day! Former President Trump is hoping to drive his only remaining GOP rival Nikki Haley out of the primary today, but her campaign is signaling it doesn’t plan to go away anytime soon.  

Temperatures are in the mid-30s in Bedford, N.H., today, which is pretty mild for New England winters. Weather can really affect turnout, but today’s weather shouldn’t be much of a factor. Light snow is predicted for tonight.  

How to follow along today: Here’s The Hill’s live blog of tidbits and updates throughout primary day.  

When do the polls close?: Most polls close at 7 p.m., but polls in a few towns close at 8 p.m.  

What I’m watching today: Could Haley pull off an upset and defeat Trump? Nearly every poll shows Trump with a significant lead, so it’s unlikely, but it depends how many independents vote in the GOP primary. Because of the drama within the Democratic Party, President Biden isn’t even competing in the state, so independent voters who want their vote to count may opt for the Republican contest.  

How strong is independent turnout?: I’ve been talking to New Hampshire voters at Haley events, and I’m struck by just how many Democrats and independents I’ve run into. That voting bloc seems to very much dislike Trump and wants to put their efforts into pushing him off the podium. Because independent and undeclared voters can participate in the GOP primary, I’m watching to see how strong that boost will be for Haley. New Hampshire has had a history of upsets.  

The Washington Post: ‘Can Haley be like Ike? New Hampshire’s primacy began with 1952 upsets.’ 

And even if Trump wins, the margins matter: If Trump wins by double digits — paired with Iowa’s eye-catching 30-point victory — Haley’s path to the nomination seems nearly impossible. But if Haley can come in a close second, it could continue to fuel her Trump challenge. South Carolina is the next major contest, and she is the former governor of the state. 

The latest polling: Trump has a 13.8 percent lead in New Hampshire, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling average. 📊 The polls included in the average 

What happens to DeSantis’s supporters?: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) abrupt exit shook up the final two days of the campaign entering New Hampshire. He endorsed Trump, which will likely give the former president a boost. He was polling at roughly 5 percent in the state before he dropped out, so that could give Trump a bump. But former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) supporters will likely give Haley a boost.  

Oh, yeah. There’s a Democratic primary: President Biden backed national Democrats’ efforts to switch up the early contests, so he’s not even on New Hampshire’s ballot. Some of his supporters are leading a write-in campaign. Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) is on the ballot and is running a long-shot campaign. I’m interested to see those results. 

NBC News: ‘What counts as a win for Biden in New Hampshire’s unprecedented primary?’ 

The Atlantic: ‘Can Biden Win a Primary He Ignored?’ 

Tidbit — Ah, Dixville Notch: Haley won all six votes in the tiny town of Dixville Notch, N.H., whose residents always vote at midnight. It doesn’t necessarily mean much, but Haley touted the win. “Look at the first six votes in Dixville Notch. Do you think if this was a done deal, we would have gotten any of them?” Haley said in an interview with “New Hampshire Today with Chris Ryan.” 

New Hampshire’s attorney general is investigating reports of AI-generated robocalls that some New Hampshire residents received this week. The voice sounded like President Biden, telling them not to vote in Tuesday’s primary. (The Washington Post) 

👀 Look who it is!: NewsNation’s Joe Khalil posted: “Spotted outside Nikki Haley’s event tonight, Rudy Giuliani sitting in a parked car with his laptop open.” 📸 Photo of Rudy sitting in the car, from NewsNation photographer Jordan Clifford  

This is why I love the primary: While working with Julia Manchester at the Airport Diner in Manchester this morning, a man came over to our table and wished us a happy primary day. After chatting with him for a few minutes, we learned that he is a presidential candidate. His name is Gabriel Cornejo, and he is on New Hampshire’s Democratic ballot. 📹 Here’s Cornejo and other candidates appear at the Lesser-Known Candidates forum 

There are lots of names on the ballot that you may not know: 📸 Sample ballots 

Haley started the day on the seacoast: Here’s a video of Haley and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) walking around Hampton, N.H. 📹 Watch 

Sununu is out and about: Sununu stopped by Bedford, N.H.’s polling place. 📸 Photo of Sununu getting interviewed by CBS News’s Robert Costa 

‘Write-in Joe Biden’ campaign signs: 📸 Photo 

Voters say the phone calls never stop: Independent voter Lauren Collins Cline posted a photo of all of the political phone calls she received Monday afternoon. 📸 Screenshot of her recent calls 

Don’t trip, Dean!!: The New York Times’s Nick Corasaniti posted a video of Phillips coming close to tripping while shaking hands with a passerby. “Dean Phillips takes the boundary preventing campaigning with it a certain distance from polls quite seriously,” Corasaniti said. 📹 Watch the clip 

Hahahaha: Axios’s Alex Thompson posted a photo of his frozen Dunkin’ coffee. “I truly love the New Hampshire primary,” he captioned the photo. 📸 Photo of the DQ-style upside down coffee 

Lol: I spotted signs in downtown Manchester, N.H., that read: “Who is Ryan Binkley?” He’s running for president. 📸 Photo 

“Under the Biden administration, more than 3.7 million student loan borrowers have had their debt forgiven by various executive actions.” The Hill’s Lexi Lonas explains who has gotten the relief. 

“Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) isn’t backing down from his standoff with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) over two McConnell-backed nominees to the Federal Trade Commission and National Transportation Safety Board.” More from The Hill’s Alexander Bolton 

🥧 Celebrate: Today is National Pie Day! 

🏆 Academy Award nominations are out!: “Oppenheimer” was nominated for 13 awards. “The atomic blockbuster was followed by ‘Poor Things’ with 11 nominations, while ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Barbie’ also picked up several nods.” (The Washington Post)  

🍽️ ‘The Menu Trends That Define Dining Right Now’: The New York Times 

The House and Senate are in. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

12:15 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and national security spokesperson John Kirby brief reporters. 💻 Livestream 

12:15 p.m.: Senators meet for weekly caucus luncheons.🗓️ Today’s agenda

2:15 p.m.: Two Senate votes. Another vote is expected around 6 p.m. 🗓️ Today’s agenda 

4 p.m.: Biden, Harris, first lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff campaign in Manassas, Va. 

6:30 p.m.: NBC News’s Tom Costello interviews Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci on “Nightly News with Lester Holt.”  

To leave you on a happy note, here’s a golden retriever living its best, snowy life. 

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