Iowa Caucus Results 2024: Trump Wins – The New York Times
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Winner
Race called by The Associated Press.
Republican Caucus race called
100% of delegates allocated (40 of 40)
See precinct-level election results, including candidate maps and analysis of how the top candidates performed in different areas.
These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the vote reported so far, and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each county.
leader
Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.
leader
Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.
This is our current best estimate for each candidate’s final share of the vote. We look at the reported votes and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. Read more about how it works.
Trump
51% of final vote
Est. from 50% to 52%
DeSantis
21%
20% to 22%
Haley
19%
18% to 20%
Ramaswamy
8%
7% to 9%
Binkley
1%
<1% to 2%
Trump
51% of final vote
Est. from 50% to 52%
DeSantis
21%
20% to 22%
Haley
19%
18% to 20%
This chart shows the range of estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical model becomes more confident.
Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Estimated vote share
Note: Because of a technical issue with a data feed, the total expected vote was briefly incorrect for a few minutes around 10:25 p.m. Eastern.
The Republican caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at hundreds of precinct locations across the state. Voters must appear in person (except for some overseas and military voters) and be registered with the party, though same-day registration is allowed.
Typically, voters indicate their preferences on blank sheets of paper. After the results are tallied, they are read aloud before being sent to the state party. In 2016, precincts began reporting results just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, and nearly all results were in by 12:50 a.m. Eastern time.
The state’s 40 delegates (just 1.6 percent of Republican delegates nationwide) will be allocated to candidates proportionally based on the final vote count. In pre-caucus polling, former president Donald J. Trump held an overwhelming lead, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley neck-and-neck behind him.
Note: Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race last week, but the Iowa Republican Party will still tabulate any votes he receives in the caucuses.
Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.
Produced by Michael Andre, Camille Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart, Isaac White and Christine Zhang.
Editing by Wilson Andrews, William P. Davis, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski and Allison McCartney.
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