Who will be the next Republican nominee? – The Economist

Donald Trump
Former president
Ron DeSantis
Governor of Florida
Nikki Haley
Former governor of South Carolina
Vivek G. Ramaswamy
Pharmaceutical company founder
Voting intention, %
Dropped out
The former president faces the prospect of four criminal trials on felony charges, which will overlap with the Republican primary season and the general-election campaign. None is likely to conclude before the primaries are over, and even if he is convicted, he is unlikely to be jailed or barred from running by the courts. But regular court dates will eat into his campaign schedule, and the trials may sour Republican voters on him (though his previous court appearances have only rallied his base). Were Mr Trump to withdraw, who would be most likely to win? The polls below show what the contest might look like without him, taking into account the second preferences of Mr Trump’s supporters.
Dropped out
The nominee will be crowned with much fanfare on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which begins on July 15th 2024. But the nominee will probably be confirmed before then. Voting begins with the Iowa caucuses in January.
Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his extraordinary term as America’s 45th president, which concluded when his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His exact role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election, which he lost, resulted in two criminal indictments. He faces two others, totalling 91 felonies. The 77-year-old former businessman denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump’s campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them). He holds a commanding lead in the Republican race.
Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, entered the primary with momentum, cash and confidence that he could beat Mr Trump. The right-wing Republican served six years in the House of Representatives but made his name as governor, when he crusaded against “wokeism”, dismissed mask mandates and delayed schools closing during the covid-19 pandemic. The 45-year-old father of three young children, whose wife often joins him on the trail, has proved an awkward campaigner. His poll numbers have collapsed.
Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, worked at her parents’ upmarket fashion boutique before running for state office. She became the first woman governor of South Carolina, her home state. She served as Donald Trump’s ambassador to the UN, but, given her appeal among relatively moderate and well-educated Republicans, has since become a favourite of Mr Trump’s detractors. On the trail she has criticised his chaotic leadership style, his comments on Israel (as too harsh) and China (not harsh enough), and more obliquely, his age. The 51-year-old insists America deserves “a new generation of leadership”.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur, presents himself as a brash, contrarian outsider. The son of immigrants from south India, he has written books on subjects such as how “woke capitalism” is hypocritical and dangerous to America’s national identity. An ultra-conservative, he shares many of Mr Trump’s policy positions. The excitement around his campaign seemed to peak in the summer after his flamboyant performance at the first Republican debate. At the end of November his political director left to join the Trump campaign.
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Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.”
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