2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump – Morning Consult
Latest surveys conducted Nov. 24-26, 2023, among a representative sample of 6,527 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters whom they plan to vote for in 2024’s likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. For our ongoing tracking of the Republican nominating contest, go to our 2024 Republican Primary Tracker.
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Biden retakes lead from Trump: Biden now leads Trump, the likeliest Republican presidential nominee for 2024, 43% to 42% in our national tracking. That 1-percentage-point lead for Biden comes several days after he trailed Trump by 4 points in Nov. 18-20 surveys — the largest deficit recorded for the incumbent since our daily tracking of the race began in December 2022. A sizable 11% of voters said they would vote for another candidate if the 2024 election were held today, while 5% are undecided.
Trump makes popularity gains: For much of the past year, Biden has maintained a consistent edge in popularity over Trump, but that’s changed recently. Over the past four surveys, Trump’s net favorability rating — the share of voters with a favorable view minus the share with an unfavorable view — has been higher than Biden’s. Nonetheless, a majority of voters view each of them unfavorably.
The top issues for 2024: The issue portfolio for next year’s elections echoes that of the 2022 midterm elections. The economy is voters’ top issue, followed by national security, health care and the safeguarding of Social Security and Medicare. Hot-button issues such as immigration, crime and abortion occupy similar places in voters’ minds as in 2022.
More voters trust GOP on foreign policy: With the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars firmly ensconced in the headlines, Republicans in Congress hold a 7-point advantage over their Democratic counterparts on the question of whom voters trust more to handle foreign policy.
Data points reflect a 3-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 2,015 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 2,015 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 2,015 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 2,015 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 2,015 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
The latest national results on the hypothetical general-election matchup of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump reflects surveys conducted Nov. 24-26, 2023, among a representative sample of 6,527 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].