Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead – The Economist
Try our new AI-powered search
beta
JOE BIDEN’S job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have under-performed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.
These numbers suggest that the race is hardly a “toss-up”. True, the five months remaining before the vote give Mr Biden time to make up ground, and the polls may underestimate his true support. But it is also possible that his deficit could widen, and that the candidate to benefit from any polling error could be Donald Trump.
Our new forecast model finds Mr Trump has a small but clear lead over Joe Biden
Incompetence rather than ideology is what’s hurting him
Forty years on, Bruce Springsteen’s defining album still has something to teach Americans
Our new forecast model finds Mr Trump has a small but clear lead over Joe Biden
Incompetence rather than ideology is what’s hurting him
Forty years on, Bruce Springsteen’s defining album still has something to teach Americans
But phones in the classroom are disruptive. What should schools do?
Major League Baseball recognition puts Josh Gibson ahead of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth in the record books
Come election season, it could be Hunter Biden’s trial that hogs the headlines
Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.”
To enhance your experience and ensure our website runs smoothly, we use cookies and similar technologies.
Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2024. All rights reserved.