©  Spencer Platt, Getty Images

A jury on Thursday found former President Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first-ever president to be convicted of a felony.

Speaking outside the courthouse, Trump maintained his innocence and said the American people would deliver the “real verdict” on Election Day.

“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people, and they know what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here.”

Trump will be sentenced on July 11, only four days before the Republican National Convention. It’s possible Judge Juan Merchan will choose to only levy a fine or probation, rather than hand out jail time.

To find Trump guilty, the jurors had to determine the former president falsified business records to conceal a hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels.

The jury also had to be convinced that Trump falsified the business records as part of an unlawful effort to defraud the public ahead of the 2016 presidential election by either by either violating the Federal Election Campaign Act; falsifying additional business records; or violating tax laws. 

Republicans voiced outrage over the verdict, which Trump is certain to appeal.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called it a “shameful day in American history.”

“The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.”

Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R) dismissed the verdict as an effort brought by “a leftist prosecutor, a partisan judge and a jury reflective of one of the most liberal enclaves in America.”

“If the defendant were not Donald Trump, this case would never have been brought, the judge would have never issued similar rulings, and the jury would have never returned a guilty verdict.This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.”

President Biden’s campaign said the verdict was evidence that “no one is above the law.”

This is a breaking news story…stay with The Hill all night for live updates from the court in Manhattan…

Senate Democrats call for DOJ to investigate Big Oil over price-fixing allegations.

The U.S. government and Moderna are nearing a deal for bird flu vaccine funding.

The climate crisis is coming for ‘the CEO of the family’s health,’ by Sharon Udasin. This is part three in The Hill’s maternal mental health series.

© Photo Credit

The big question weighing on the minds of Washington insiders is what impact the guilty verdict will have on the presidential race.

As we noted yesterday, the dynamics of the race haven’t changed since the opening remarks in the Manhattan courthouse.

Trump continues to hold a small lead in most battleground states and he’s the narrow favorite to win the White House.

A poll released before the verdict on Thursday found that a guilty verdict might not change the race all that much.

The latest Marist survey found that more than two-thirds of voters said a guilty verdict would not affect their vote, with 17 percent saying they’d be less likely to support Trump. About 15 percent said they’d be more likely to support Trump if he’s found guilty.

Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton, who has become a fierce critic of the former president, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that a guilty verdict could potentially swing independents toward Biden.

“I think a lot of independent voters, they may say: That’s the end of it for us.”

One place where Democrats largely agree — the Biden campaign’s stunt of rolling out Robert De Niro to bash Trump outside the courthouse during his criminal trial did not go over well.

The Biden campaign had previously sought to steer clear of the trial to avoid the impression of meddling or impropriety.

Democratic strategist David Axelrod called the move “ill-timed.”

“Who thought this was a good idea? I love De Niro’s work and agree with many of his comments. But given the arm’s length distance the White House has kept from the whole sordid mess at 100 Centre Street, they seemed grossly ill-timed.”

CNN: Hollywood wrestles with 2024 endorsements in a polarized world.

The Trump campaign said earlier in the day it will be business as usual.

The Associated Press reports that Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump said the former president would still campaign even if he’s found guilty.

“We will have him doing virtual rallies and campaign events if that is the case. And we’ll have to play the hand that we’re dealt.”

Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to keep the lid from boiling over as polls consistently show Biden trailing Trump in the states that matter.

The Hill’s Al Weaver and Alex Gangitano report that “anxiety is at a high water mark” among Democrats, but leaders are used to these bouts of “tortured hand-wringing,” which also took place when Democrats performed better than expected in 2022.

Republicans are also favored to win back the Senate, but GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) isn’t sleeping comfortably just yet.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that McConnell believes the GOP faces an uphill climb in unseating Democratic incumbents in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana and Ohio.

“I think incumbency, as we learned in ’22, is an advantage. Not a single incumbent lost in ’22. Sen. Daines and I have never said we thought this was going to be easy.”

© Greg Nash

Chief Justice John Roberts on Thursday declined a request to meet with Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) about their efforts to have Justice Samuel Alito recuse himself from cases pertaining to the Jan. 6 riots on Capitol Hill.

Alito has been at the center of controversy since the New York Times reported that he flew an upside down American flag at his residence and the “Appeal to Heaven” flag at his vacation home. Both flags have been associated with the “Stop the Steal” movement.

Earlier this week, Alito said he would not recuse himself from any cases.

Alito said his wife hung both flags. He said the upside down flag was hung after a nonpolitical dispute with his neighbors, although the Times disputes the timing of that story. And he said he had no knowledge that the “Appeal to Heaven” flag had been co-opted by rightwing interests, saying he only knew about its history related to the Revolutionary War.

Senate Democrats were hopeful Roberts would intervene, but the chief justice dismissed the request for a meeting, citing the separation of powers.

“Apart from ceremonial events, only on rare occasions in our Nation’s history has a sitting Chief Justice met with legislators, even in a public setting (such as a Committee hearing) with members of both major political parties present. Separation of powers concerns and the importance of preserving judicial independence counsel against such appearances. Moreover, the format proposed — a meeting with leaders of only one party who have expressed an interest in matters currently pending before the Court — simply underscores that participating in such a meeting would be inadvisable.”

Democrats are demanding ethics reforms following the Alito flag controversy and the ProPublica reports on Justice Clarence Thomas accepting gifts from wealthy benefactors, some of whom had business before the court.

Republicans say the controversies have been manufactured by the media and that Democrats are seeking to undermine the court’s conservative majority.

Read more:

Raskin argues DOJ can force recusals of Alito, Thomas in Jan. 6 cases.

The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the National Rifle Association can move forward with a free speech fight against a former New York regulator accused of coercing insurers and banks to sever ties with the gun lobbying group.

As The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld and Ella Lee report, the case has drawn some “unusual battle lines.” 

For example, the opinion in favor of the NRA was written by liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

Sotomayor wrote that former New York Department of Financial Services chief Maria Vullo “was free to criticize the NRA and pursue the conceded violations of New York insurance law.” 

However, Vullo could not wield her power to “threaten enforcement actions against DFS-regulated entities in order to punish or suppress the NRA’s gun-promotion advocacy.”

The American Civil Liberties Union represented the NRA in front of the court, marking the first time the two groups have teamed up.

The victory means the NRA can continue to pursue its First Amendment case against Vullo, although the group will face a higher burden of proof going forward.

“Until we agree on the basic facts, addressing the national debt will be tough,” by former Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.).

“If you don’t like the economy, blame Trump,” by attorney Neil Baron.

28 days until the first presidential debate.

46 days until the Republican National Convention.

81 days until the Democratic National Convention.

159 days until the 2024 general election.

235 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Friday

President Biden returns to the White House.
Vice President Harris holds a campaign fundraiser in San Diego.

You’re all caught up! Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend this newsletter to others: TheHill.com/Evening. See you tomorrow!