Has Trump Experienced A Political Strikeout? Or Is He About To Hit A Home Run? – Montgomery Independent
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Mainly clear skies. Low 68F. Winds light and variable.
Updated: May 27, 2024 @ 10:26 am
Brian Hodge
Brian Hodge
Politics is often compared to sports because the analogy holds for numerous straightforward and obvious reasons. People feel a connection to a sports team. Sometimes this happens because they have an affinity or infatuation with a particular player. How do we count the number of Taylor Swift fans that also became fans of the Kansas City Chiefs over the last year? More often they have a history with the school or city the team represents.
My old boss Art Parker was a big New York Yankees fan. He inherited it from his biological father with whom he had a complex and sometimes challenging relationship. Art’s father died when he was relatively young, which means he did not have as many years as some to develop a seething resentment for his father and begin supporting the Red Sox as happens with so many blooming Yankee fans with daddy issues. Likewise people have feelings of solidarity with particular political parties. This often happens because people support the party their parents supported or, thanks to the insidious nature of U.S. politics which divides the electorate into only two pieces, they disagree with their parents and support the opposing party loyally and without question. Almost nobody is considered a “fan” of a team they despise.
In my family we were not particularly political. My maternal grandfather was an avowed Democrat, but beyond that I never heard him talk about politics. My father, the only other person in my family with whom I discussed politics, was a supporter of the Republican party, but not someone you would consider conservative. My personal take on politics is also somewhat like a sport. However, not being a big sports fan, my interest steers away from organized efforts of athletic prowess and more towards destructive spectacle; something like a demolition derby.
It was for this reason I was overjoyed when Donald Trump was elected. When I tell people I liked Donald Trump as president I know for certain they do not understand my reasons why. Most of the things about Trump his most die-hard evangelical supporters tend to ignore or causes them to avert their gaze is the stuff I liked about the Trumpster. He is loud, obscene, sexually perverted and without shame for the numerous lies he openly speaks into microphones. This is what I like about Trump. I like these things because for most of my life hypocritical conservatives who extolled the virtues of “family values” reflected in a president, now support Trump who is unquestionably a philandering, gambling, cursing, lout who in a grotesque act of hubris has endorsed his own personal version of the Holy Bible. I thought for sure once Trump was elected that was the last we would hear about “family values” in presidential politics. The thing I did not and still do not like about Trump is the fact that he attempts to cozy up to radical Christian Nationalists, a subset of Christian conservatives who presume to speak for all Christians. Nobody speaks for all Christians that is the beauty of the system.
Most people support political candidates they agree with or that reflect the consensus attitudes of the majority in their geographic neighborhood. Very few places in the United States are politically purple where congressional seats and presidential delegates are contested in November ballots. Even states considered swing states like Colorado and Ohio have reliably Republican and reliably Democrat counties. Like a growing number of people in the country I find neither party truly represents me or my interests. As a result I have set a goal to do what I can to help the Republicans and the Democrats alter or possibly even destroy their parties in a profound disruption. This will happen whether I help or not. About every 50 years the parties go through a shakeup that scrambles their interests and supporters. George Freidman wrote an excellent book on the topic called The Storm before the Calm.
If I had to place $1,000 of my own money on the 2024 presidential election, I do not like Trump’s chances in November. Trump and Joe Biden can usually count on 40 -45% of the electorate just by virtue of being the party’s candidate. When Trump ran against Hilary Clinton, arguably one of the least popular and most reviled candidates in modern history he only got 46% of the vote. Since then the GOP has fractured.
The Republican Party, just like the Democratic Party has its factions. While the Democrat factions tend to war against each other the Republican factions, until Trump, largely did not. But Trump alienated many seasoned veterans and in some cases entire factions in his party. When Nikki Haley challenged she never had a chance to win. But she managed to clinch 13%-18% of the GOP electorate in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that may very well stay home in November despite her recent endorsement of Trump. Additionally cynical Republican bundlers might see a greater opportunity to raise future campaign funds with a decrepit Joe Biden in the White House and a vapid pile of clothing in the shape of Kamala Harris waiting in the VP’s office to take over a job. On a personal note, I have to admit there is a certain morbid curiosity in watching a president grow old and die in office only to be replaced by an incompetent vice president even less well suited to the constraints of the office than Trump.
My feeling is that Trump was a “one and done” president not because he was sabotaged by political witch hunts, which you could argue he was. Rather, like the Red Sox’s Manny Ramirez his erratic, offensive and destructive nature, which was hilarious to watch, brought his career to a premature end. No matter how the election in November turns out, I find fewer things more comforting in the wintertime than warming myself next to a political dumpster fire.
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