Analysts say Trump’s apparent lead could change ahead of NH primary – WCAX
LEBANON, N.H. (WCAX) – The New Hampshire primary is now just three weeks away. If the Republican primary for president was held today, Donald Trump would almost certainly be the party’s nominee according to state and national polls. But experts say a lot could change in the next three weeks.
“I think that mostly people were paying attention to their holidays and when it starts to get real is now,” said Linda Fowler, a politic science professor at Dartmouth College.
On Jan. 23, New Hampshire residents will once again cast their primary votes for their parties’ presidential candidates. According to the latest Saint Anselm College poll, Donald Trump still has a double-digit lead over the field with 44% of the vote.
“So much of his appeal right now is inevitability and name recognition,” Fowler said.
But according to the same poll, Nikki Haley has 30% of primary voters checking her name, a bump that was likely helped by an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Haley has been crisscrossing the state trying to woo independent voters who can vote in the Republican primary if they choose.
“The big question is going to be turnout and whether Trump people think he is so far ahead that they don’t need to vote,” Fowler said.
The most vocal Trump critic this election cycle has been Chris Christie, who is now polling third. But Fowler says the former New Jersey governor still has a long way to go.
“I think a lot of people respect him but they think he can’t win,” she said.
Ron DeSantis, who appears to be losing support in the Granite State, rounds out the top four. The Florida governor is betting on Iowa, the first caucus state, to propel him to the front of the pack ahead of the primary.
But Fowler says a strong showing in Iowa may be even more important for Trump.
“If he were even to get less than 50% of the caucus vote, I think the press would suddenly change this narrative of inevitability and that could really make a difference in New Hampshire,” Fowler said.
The Iowa caucuses are on Jan. 15, just eight days before New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation contest.
Because of the change in this cycle’s Democratic voting calendar, President Joe Biden’s name will not appear on the New Hampshire ballot for the Democrats, but a write-in campaign for Biden is underway.
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